On Monday night the New Orleans Hornets were the last team to reach 41 games played. With every team at 41 games, I can now begin my analysis of the NBA at the mid-point of the 2008-09 season. Before I get to that, though, here are some brief comments on the Hornets (I will start the midpoint review on Thursday night).
The 2005 Draft Again
In 2004-05, the Hornets suffered their worst season – in terms of wins and losses – in their history. The reward for this season was the fourth selection in the 2005 draft. Obviously before the Hornets could make their choice, three other teams would get to pick first. Here is how those picks have worked out:
- The Milwaukee Bucks had the first pick and selected Andrew Bogut. Bogut has managed to post above average numbers, producing 19.7 wins after his first three seasons.
- The second choice was made by the Atlanta Hawks. Despite a need for a point guard, the Hawks selected Marvin Williams. Williams posted below average numbers in each of his first three seasons, producing only 8.9 wins. Although he has become slightly above average in 2008-09, his numbers still lag behind what one might expect of the second player chosen in a draft.
- Deron Williams was taken by the Utah Jazz with the third pick. D. Williams was named to the All-NBA Second Team in 2008, and his wins production confirms his status as a star. In 2007-08 he posted a 0.222 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. An average mark is 0.100, so D. Williams was more than twice as productive as an average NBA player last season. If we look across his first three seasons we see that D. Williams has produced 24.1 wins. In other words, he has offered more than Bogut or M.Williams.
With these players off the board the Hornets turn finally came. And with the fourth selection in the 2005 draft, New Orleans selected Chris Paul. If you look back at the numbers of the first three selections you will see that the trio of Bogut, M.Williams, and D. Williams has combined to produce 52.7 wins in their first three seasons. In Paul’s first three seasons he produced 55.0 wins. Yes, the fourth selection in 2005 has done more than the first three choices have managed as a group.
One of the All-Time Greats
And this season, Paul is even better. To see how much better we turn to Table One.
Table One: The New Orleans Hornets in 2008-09 after 41 games
From Table One we see that Paul – after 41 games in 2008-08 – has already produced 15.9 wins. In 2007-08, only ten players produced more wins for the entire season (and one of these was Paul). If Paul continues at this pace in 2008-09 he will finish with 31.8 Wins Produced. And if he eclipses the 30 win mark he will be first player to do this since Kevin Garnett (30.7 wins) did this in 2002-03.
Here is some more perspective on the greatness that is Chris Paul.
Back in the 1980s there was a point guard named Magic Johnson (you might have heard of him). Here is what Magic did in his career:
- 1979-80: 20.6 Wins Produced, 0.353 WP48
- 1980-81: 14.6 Wins Produced, 0.512 WP48
- 1981-82: 29.6 Wins Produced, 0.475 WP48
- 1982-83: 29.3 Wins Produced, 0.484 WP48
- 1983-84: 24.5 Wins Produced, 0.459 WP48
- 1984-85: 24.3 Wins Produced, 0.420 WP48
- 1985-86: 22.8 Wins Produced, 0.425 WP48
- 1986-87: 26.9 Wins Produced, 0.444 WP48
- 1987-88: 18.9 Wins Produced, 0.345 WP48
- 1988-89: 28.4 Wins Produced, 0.472 WP48
- 1989-90: 26.1 Wins Produced, 0.426 WP48
- 1990-91: 26.7 Wins Produced, 0.436 WP48
- 1995-96: 4.6 Wins Produced, 0.231 WP48
- CAREER: 297.3 Wins Produced, 0.429 WP48
As one can see, Chris Paul in 2008-09 compares favorably to Magic Johnson. And that is a point I would emphasize. Chris Paul is developing into one of the all-time great players in NBA history. It’s not a stretch to start thinking of him in terms of players like Magic, MJ, and Bird. Yes, Paul is that good.
Struggles in New Orleans
Unfortunately, some of his teammates are struggling. Specifically, Tyson Chandler and David West have declined relative to last year. In 2007-08, Chandler produced 16.3 wins and posted a 0.281 WP48. Meanwhile, West produced 6.3 wins with a 0.105 WP48. Yes, Chandler offered more than the All-Star West.
This year Chandler is still offering more. But like West, the amount offered has declined. Chandler’s WP48 in 2008-09 is only 0.132 while West’s mark has fallen to 0.044. Had these two players maintained what we saw last year, the Hornets would be on pace to win close to 60 games. In other words, if Chandler and West were performing as they did in 2007-08, New Orleans would be close to the NBA’s elite (Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, and the Lakers). Instead — despite the fact the team employs the most productive player in the game — New Orleans is just another good team.
If we delve a little deeper into the numbers we can see where Chandler and West are failing. Both players are not rebounding as much as they did last year. Why this has happened, though, is puzzling. Last year the Hornets out-rebounded their opponents. This year, New Orleans has a rebounding deficit. This tells us that there are rebounds for Chandler and West. The two players are simply not getting these boards.
Currently each player is hurt. But if these two could a) get healthy and b) return to what we saw last year; the Hornets would become one of the top teams in the league. If this happens, it would be clear to more people that Chris Paul is really the most productive player in the game today. And as emphasized above, one of the most productive players to ever play the game.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Owen
January 27, 2009
Just heard Tony and Wilbon talking about Paul on PTI. Their take? Paul has yet to separate himself fully from other point guards in the league. Tony Parker has “jewelry,” for instance. They concur that the guys you start your team with are Lebron and Kobe, then either Paul or Lebron.
Which is just total idiocy, although I like PTI.
It is interesting how important external, team accomplishments are to validating a players individual talent. Paul is clearly the best player in the league right now in my book. But it may take awhile for reputation to catch up with reality.
Peter
January 27, 2009
Hmmm, how can you tell me that a guy shooting at a higher rate than Kobe Bryant, passing more than Steve Nash in his prime (And who had to do it with more possessions), stealing like Allen Iverson in HIS prime, and grabbing rebounds like someone half a foot taller, not to mention flirting with a quadruple-double twice this season, has not distanced himself?
Does having jewelry seem overly relevant when Glen Davis, Mark Madsen, and Cleveland GM Danny Ferry all have more rings than Paul? Okay, rings are still important to a guy’s legacy, but that is beside the point.
You won’t see people begin to truly appreciate what he is doing in his career until later on, which is tragic.
Michael
January 27, 2009
Finally your post on the Hornets!
Chris Paul is a once in a generation type of player, I am glad your numbers back that up so thoroughly! Not only does he have the potential to be a top 3 player in league history, but he is the kind of guy you can really root for, not a total egotist like Lebron!
One of my favourite ever basketball stories is the one about Paul scoring 61 points in a high school game to honour his grandfathers passing. I found a feature on it on youtube, here is the link http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=fxwyE5m44x4
Peter, don’t worry there are a lot of people who appreciate Chris Paul right now. I’m sure once he gets another great playoff series or two behind him then ‘the mainstream’ will start to give him his due.
Great post on a great player.
NickP
January 27, 2009
How is Lebron an egotist? That seems a bit presumptuous on your part.
PJ
January 27, 2009
Um, “global icon,” anyone? I don’t know Lebron James personally, so I can’t say if he is truly an “egotist” or not, but he definitely comes off like one.
That said, I’d be curious to see a close comparison of what Paul and James are offering this year. Because Lebron is just incredible. And despite his seeming egotism, he also appears, in the 4-6 Cavs games I’ve seen, to have become a good leader, too, and to have really seized the reins of that team. Maybe Brown is a better coach than Scott, too, but James would be my MVP… Paul or Howard second.
Owen
January 28, 2009
“Maybe Brown is a better coach than Scott, too, but James would be my MVP… Paul or Howard second.”
At least we can all agree it’s not Kobe…
Joe
January 28, 2009
PJ,
You say you have seen 4-6 Cavs games. Out of curiosity, how many Hornets games have you seen? Just wondering.
Michael
January 28, 2009
Nick P,
How is it presumptious to call a man who frequently refers to himself in the third person, who courts attention from other franchises like a girl trying to make a man jealous (and then calls one of the 50 greatest players in nba history ‘stupid’ for disagreeing with it, ) who builds himself a 35,000 sq ft mega house complete with a rather large statue of HIMSELF at the front of it, an egotist?
Sorry but in the face of all that it would be presumptious to say he ISN’T an egotist!
Tommy_Grand
January 28, 2009
CP3 has an ego too. Don’t kid yourself. He is freakin’ awesome though and clearly the top PG playing today – jewelry notwithstanding.
PJ
January 28, 2009
I’ve seen the Hornets maybe twice this year. So it’s quite possible if I watched Paul more I’d be as blown away by him as I have been by James. Berri’s numbers certainly suggest it.
Peter
January 28, 2009
Come to thing of it, Tommy_Grand, Paul does an awful lot of charity work in New Orleans and in his hometown of Winston-Salem, not to mention an outgoing personality. And all of this work appears genuine, not just a PR stunt.
It certainly doesn’t make him look overtly self-centered.
John W. Davis
January 28, 2009
I knew Chris Paul was good but didnt realize his Wins Produced was so high.
In my opinion, without hand checking, he is one of the most dominant players in the game.
I wonder how good Magic would have been without hand checking.
Maybe he could have eclipsed the .600 Wins Produced barrier!
don
January 28, 2009
How does Wins Produced take into account defense? Certainly steals, blocks, and rebounds are a part, and CP3 is a steal machine and an excellent rebounder for his size. Is he good at forcing opposing players into low percentage shots? How does Wins Produced measure this (if at all?)
He’s clearly a once in a generation offensive point guard, I’m just curious how his defense would be quantified.
Jacob Rosen
January 28, 2009
Is LeBron not on pace to eclipse the illustrious 30-win mark this season as well? If that is not the case, than it would seem the only reason why is because of his decreased minutes this season (40.36 mpg last year, 37.49 this season).
Italian Stallion
January 28, 2009
There’s no doubt that Paul is a great player, but I also wonder how he compares defensively to some of the other current and former players in the conversation. Typically, these smaller PGs have some trouble with other players shooting over them etc…. even if they can also grab a lot of steals.
I don’t get to see Paul all that much, but from the little I’ve seen, I’d have to rate guys like Lebron, Kobe, Garnett, Duncan etc.. and the other elite players as better defenders at their respective positions.
In the end, I think he’ll get the credit he is due even if he doesn’t win a a championship as long as he’s seen as single handedly leading the team deep into the playoffs. If they keep going out early though, I think it will be quite awhile. People asssociate true elite greatness with winning on the assumption that the really great ones can get pretty far on their own just by making those around them better.
Jacob Rosen
January 28, 2009
“How is it presumptious to call a man who frequently refers to himself in the third person, who courts attention from other franchises like a girl trying to make a man jealous (and then calls one of the 50 greatest players in nba history ’stupid’ for disagreeing with it, ) who builds himself a 35,000 sq ft mega house complete with a rather large statue of HIMSELF at the front of it, an egotist?
Sorry but in the face of all that it would be presumptious to say he ISN’T an egotist!”
Michael,
First of all, if you could play basketball like LeBron, I think you might build yourself a pretty nice house too. He is living in a well-populated and commercialized area in West Akron, and since I drove by it not too long ago, I can tell you for a fact that he is not building a statute of himself in front of it.
LeBron is turning into a quite intelligent businessman and marketer. He has one service to give to the basketball community, and that is his excellent playing abilities. There should be no fault in talking openly about his future in the free agent market, and Charles Barkley went out of line in the first place for criticizing him on national television. LeBron has the right as a fellow NBA icon to yell back at Chuck, as LeBron knows exactly what he is doing with his identity in the free agent market.
Millions of people in this world, maybe even billions, are egotists. How can you blame them? In order to be happy people oftentimes strive to do what is best for them individually, and LeBron is no exception to that rule. He just happens to be pretty exceptional at basketball as well…
Peter
January 28, 2009
LeBron has been doing well defensively against some noted NBA stars this season. He has held Danny Granger to 4 points on 2-7 shooting in one case, as well as playing a role in at least several of Paul Pierce’s 5 turnovers in another.
He is already posting a career high in blocks per game, even in spite of reduced minutes. For only the second time in his career, he is swiping 2 per. And he’s on track to post the third 27,7, and 7 season line in his career.
Needless to say, Beijing was a boost to his career.
Jordan
January 29, 2009
David Friedman over at 20 second time out has done, not extensive, but enough research on Chris Paul’s inflated assist rate. In the 7 games or so that’s he’s watched this season, Friedman has noticed a 25 percent assist inflation with CP3. Since reading his post a couple weeks ago, I’ve watched several New Orleans games, and during the games especially that David West plays, Chris Paul gets around 3 or 4 “assists” credited to him that have no business whatsoever being an assist. Was wondering if you had any comment on this and what it would indicate about Paul’s numbers. Obviously, you can’t be credited with a fake field goal percentage, but when you start comparing him to Magic Johnson, I hesitate a bit due to the inflated assist totals. If the 25 percent inflation is true, and the evidence is mounting, Paul’s averages would be closer to 21 and 9. Still great, but he’d be more of a better version of Stephon Marbury, instead of a super, duper Isiah Thomas.
Italian Stallion
January 29, 2009
Is there a written standard for awarding assists that allows for some degree of subjectivity (sort of like scoring rounds in boxing) or is there a lot subjectivity?
I remember reading that Europe is very stingy about awarding assists relative to the NBA when Gallinari was drafted by teh Knicks and people were evaluating his assists.
anon
January 29, 2009
totally unrelated, but I’m curious what WinScore says about Durant since he’s switched from SG to SF. I know you did an OKC post pre-switch, but I’m curious if WinScore confirms that he’s improved dramatically and has become close the player everyone hoped he’d become (his numbers that month were pretty exceptional).
theclatch
January 29, 2009
This is purely hypothetical, and maybe I’m reading too much into the psychology of the players, but say you took CP3’s approach to the game and gave him Lebron’s body. Do you think Lebron would be better? I think so…
mrparker
January 29, 2009
I would like to see the study from 20 second time out. I would like to see instances where some other player doesn’t get an assist in a similar situation. I know the nba awards assists easier than people realize but to say just one player benefits more heavily than any other seems a bit out there. It could be the case though.
NickP
January 29, 2009
theclatch:
Of course. It would be a similar story if you gave his skills to Shaq, as well.
It’s harder for big guys to handle and shoot jumpers well. Name a great 3 point shooter 6’9″ (Lebron’s height) or above?
Dirk, Memo, ?
Smaller players are more skilled, but size wins games. Generally speaking.
Phil
January 29, 2009
Jordan,
I’ve heard that the Lakers and western teams in general have for a long time had statisticians that were pretty generous with assists.
One thing I do know: assist rates are up this year a lot, something like 9%, from last year. There’s a few teams that are definitely emphasizing passing and ball-movement over is0-plays more (the Knicks and Cavs spring to mind, as does Denver), but in my subjective opinion, those keeping the stats have a hand in them.
Peter
January 29, 2009
anon:
A quick look at Durant throughout the season through Win Scores reveals that Durant has progressed from bad last season to good this year.
As in, as good as, maybe even a little more productive, than Al Horford. And this discounts his performance after OKC changed coaches.
And Phil, part of the inflation in assists also pertains to rule changes benefiting backcourt players over the last several years. With mobile big men now in vogue (David West, Dirk, Pau, and Chris Bosh all made the All-Star team), pounding the ball in paint doesn’t dominate games like it used to.
Jordan
January 30, 2009
I bring up Chris Paul mainly, because how many other point guards handle the ball as much as he does? Deron Williams, yes, but he plays with guys who catch and finish, or catch and jack up shots. CP3 plays with David West. I’ve seen time and time again, where Paul will pass it to West at the top post. West will face up his man, jab fake, head fake, then take two dribbles either toward the basket, or sideways to create space and then score a bucket. That isn’t an assist by any stretch of the imagination. But Paul was awarded one. The most egregious “assist” I’ve seen in 7 or so games watching, was Paul just passed it to Butler above the 3-point line, like a lot of plays simply to initiate the offense. Butler head-faked his man who closed out on him, drove by him with two dribbles, then took his two and a half steps and found himself 8 feet from the basket where he floated in a tear drop shot.
I seriously question Nash’s back to back MVPs anyway, but with evidence that assists are handed out THIS loosely, those MVPs look even sillier.
kraltvmp3
January 31, 2009
thanks so this post
mrparker
February 1, 2009
on the assists argument,
If everyone is awarded assists in this manner than it shouldn’t matter as long as we are comparing contemporaries. Now comparing magic to paul might be another story. I was always under the impression(from video games) that assists are awarded on any shot within two dribbles. Wouldn’t it be too subjective otherwise?
theclatch
February 2, 2009
NickP:
I didn’t mean his skill set, I guess I meant more his desire to win. That’s why I was saying I might be reading into the psychology of the players too much. Anyways, from random anecdotes from players around him and Byron Scott and just from the way he carries himself, I feel like nobody is on his level in that regard (desire to win) except maybe Kobe. Although CP3’s desire to win leads to more team-oriented basketball and Kobe’s leads to more “Nobody can do it but me” basketball.
Tommy_Grand
February 16, 2009
I feel like I have read all this before.
CP3 is awesome. He is one of the best 5 or 6 players on earth. Out of 6 billion.
Did anyone say he wasn’t?
Tommy_Grand
February 16, 2009
I’ll take Lebron, “superman”, Kobe, & CP3, and any average PF — you can have any 5 (active) you want. I will own you by 8+ per night.
Mo
February 27, 2009
Somebody asked an official on NBA.com what constitutes as an assist. This is his answer….
Question: What constitutes an assist? Does a player have to score directly after he receives the ball from a teammate? Or can he dribble the score? What if a player takes an inbounds past at his baseline, dribbles the whole length of the court, then scores. Is there an assist on that play?
— Shawn
Bernie’s Answer: I’ve received a number of questions related to game statistics (assists, blocks, turnovers, etc.). Referees are not responsible for determining these stats. There are courtside statisticians who enter game events in real-time (check nba.com while you’re watching a game to see live play-by-play stats). The statisticians use guidelines for what counts in different categories. I asked our Director of Game Administration to help clarify this for us. Here is what he said:
An assist is credited to the player tossing the last pass leading directly to a field goal, only if the player scoring the goal responds by demonstrating immediate reaction toward the basket. This can include dribbling, as well as receiving a pass from out of bounds. In your example where the player dribbles the entire length of the court, the inbounder would not be credited with an assist due to the fact that the pass did not lead directly to a field goal.
Mo
February 27, 2009
I think if said player received the ball and made a direct attempt to go to the rim or to shoot the ball, it’s an assist from said other player.